Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.562882 2.058146 2.727290 3.721301 5.203110 7.403733e+00 1.106918e+01
2025-01-19 0.944958 1.396827 2.107511 3.370794 5.714085 1.024234e+01 2.080020e+01
2025-01-26 0.668867 1.088940 1.842154 3.421229 7.059329 1.643118e+01 4.971338e+01
2025-02-02 0.522158 0.929524 1.757225 3.808151 9.800457 3.174427e+01 1.763909e+02
2025-02-09 0.426274 0.823997 1.734065 4.403665 14.533869 7.234415e+01 1.145742e+03
2025-02-16 0.337765 0.697024 1.602766 4.676325 19.595664 1.585809e+02 1.582007e+04
2025-02-23 0.260678 0.564657 1.389465 4.531612 23.376596 3.120412e+02 2.005586e+06
2025-03-02 0.201578 0.453359 1.177326 4.209444 26.100088 5.875876e+02 NaN
2025-03-09 0.170161 0.401032 1.115507 4.505827 36.369151 2.087060e+03 NaN
2025-03-16 0.144563 0.354909 1.049870 4.752978 50.247702 1.085448e+04 NaN
2025-03-23 0.126229 0.322811 1.017018 5.200577 75.511930 2.242443e+05 NaN
2025-03-30 0.110724 0.293624 0.979628 5.622864 114.022512 4.591801e+11 NaN
2025-04-06 0.092230 0.250346 0.867134 5.381695 139.769671 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.076285 0.210447 0.748407 4.913651 154.396995 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.066678 0.188850 0.701403 5.064464 225.624048 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.060782 0.178132 0.700681 5.765142 443.658812 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.056391 0.171330 0.717004 6.838557 1105.654051 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.050926 0.158634 0.693525 7.374046 2315.561788 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.044816 0.141523 0.633923 7.172168 3499.324113 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.039134 0.124571 0.566017 6.646129 4335.618331 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.036016 0.117144 0.553365 7.205121 12137.787807 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.033118 0.109765 0.536666 7.680030 40105.269357 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.030907 0.104653 0.532359 8.525077 320187.258772 NaN NaN